This Week in Travel — Podcast Transcript

Host: Mark Murphy | TravelTube.com

Government Shutdown & TSA Impact

Hey folks, Mark Murphy back with TravelTube.com for This Week in Travel. We have a few things going on. We have a shutdown that's now beyond 30 days. As I said about three and a half weeks ago during national TV interviews, the first few weeks would be manageable — but it was going to build. And the pressure is really building on Congress to do something about this.

Over this past weekend, we saw about a 10% absentee rate among TSA employees across all airports. Normally that figure sits at 2–3%. I predicted it would climb as high as 10–12% if the shutdown continued, and we're right there. It could go higher still.

In Houston, 50% of TSA employees called out. That's massive. In New Orleans — another troubled airport — 30% called out. When half your TSA workforce doesn't show up, you get people sleeping in airports, three- and four-hour security lines, and missed flights. Meanwhile, congressional representatives get to bypass those same lines — while getting paid — as they hold up a bill to close the funding gap. The TSA officer making $15 or $20 an hour doesn't get paid. If you're living on that wage, you don't have much to fall back on. Many of these workers are picking up Uber shifts and other gig work to cover the gap.

The silver lining is that they won't lose this money permanently — it's deferred compensation, and they'll eventually be made whole. But the immediate pain is real, and I think there's more ahead.

Here's the situation for anyone not following it closely: the Democrats have blocked this funding because they want to defund ICE. The problem is that ICE is already funded through 2028. Meanwhile, we've had four attacks classified as terrorism in the past 13 days, while funding for the Department of Homeland Security remains held up. TSA is an inconvenience — protecting the homeland is a requirement.

The good news is that air safety itself isn't affected, since FAA funding is separate. But when you combine TSA shortages with the major weather storm that moved through the upper Midwest and into the Northeast, the impact on travel has been enormous.

You can't control the weather — but you can address the security line crisis by passing this funding. If you haven't already, reach out to your representatives and senators and tell them to get this done. Roughly 2.2 million people fly in the United States every day. This affects business travelers, leisure travelers, and anyone trying to make a cruise connection without travel insurance.

I'm a registered independent — have been since 2012. But you have to ask yourself: who's making the most noise about this, and what are they demanding? Reach out to your local rep and senator. Let's move on.

Oil Prices & Airline Ticket Costs

A lot of people have been asking whether rising oil prices will impact airfare later this year. The short answer: it depends.

If the conflict involving Iran drags on for months and oil can't flow through the Strait of Hormuz, we could see oil prices reach $150 to $200 a barrel — no problem. That would drive up jet fuel costs, which are already the single largest line-item operating expense for airlines.

Airlines have historically managed this risk through hedging — locking in fuel prices when they're at attractive levels. Southwest was great at this for years, but in 2025 they dropped their hedging program entirely and now simply pay market price. Most U.S. carriers have done the same.

The interesting exception is Delta. Delta owns a stake in a refinery that covers roughly 75% of its baseline fuel needs. That's essentially a form of vertical integration, and it functions as a hedge against price shocks.

Where you see serious hedging is among international carriers — particularly European ones. Some have locked in 80–90% of their projected 2026 fuel use. My tip: if you're planning a trip to Europe this summer, keep an eye on how European carrier pricing responds to oil price changes. If they're hedged, they have flexibility. The question is whether they'll use a cost advantage to undercut U.S. carriers and grab market share — or simply match U.S. carrier prices and pocket the extra margin. Time will tell, but it's worth watching.

If you want to see which carriers are hedged and for how long, just run a search on Grok or ChatGPT — you'll find the details pretty quickly.

AI and Travel Agents

AI has been generating a lot of excitement, and I want to offer some perspective for travel agents who may be worried about it.

I use ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude.ai regularly — including to clean up podcast transcripts like this one. These tools dramatically increase productivity. A young entrepreneur I was helping a couple of years ago planned his entire honeymoon using AI and put together a full itinerary. Impressive tools. And they make existing travel planning platforms even better.

But here's the thing: I've seen this before. In the mid-1990s, I was running the business side of a trade publication focused on travel agents. At an industry conference in Portugal — about 5,000 people — a Hilton Hotels executive told me that travel agents were going out of business because of the internet. He was wrong.

Yes, the internet took some transactions away. But the professionals in the industry adapted. They shifted their business models, embraced the new tools, and created new value for their clients. The internet didn't replace them — it gave them better resources to work with.

AI is the same. It's a tool, not a replacement. It makes the travel agent's job faster, more efficient, and more capable. If you're a travel agent, learn how to use it. Take a course — there's a lot of free material online. Learn how to write effective prompts. Become a productivity powerhouse.

Don't get stuck complaining about old problems. Airlines cut commissions back in 1994 and phased them out over the following years. Agents who kept relitigating that battle for decades missed the point. The opportunity is in reframing: instead of being a transaction processor for airline tickets, be a true consultant. Build incredible itineraries and memorable experiences. That's where the value is.

I'd recommend downloading and trying Grok, Gemini, Claude AI, and ChatGPT. Get familiar with each and figure out how they can best serve your workflow. The travel agents who embrace these tools are going to be better for it.

Las Vegas Pricing: Responding to the Bellagio Video

Earlier this week, I posted a video about the cost of Las Vegas — specifically using the Bellagio as an example — and the responses were, well, classic.

Here's what I said: I priced out four nights at the Bellagio — Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The two weekend nights averaged over $500 each. The two weeknights dropped to around $220–$260. Plus a $55 resort fee per night. With taxes and fees, the total for the room came to roughly $2,100 — booked directly on the Bellagio's website.

Then I said you'd spend $400–$500 on food. Now, to be clear: I'm not traveling alone. I bring my wife. Two people eat breakfast, grab coffee, have lunch, maybe an afternoon snack, sit down for dinner, and possibly catch a show. That's a full day.

Here's what the numbers actually look like on the Strip — and these are general Strip prices, not Bellagio-specific:

• Budget dining (food courts, fast food): $60–$100 per person per day
• Mid-range (sit-down breakfast, casual lunch, resort dinner with 1–2 drinks): $150–$250 per person per day — or $300–$500 for two people
• Luxury dining: $400+ per person per day

Let's run the math for two people at the mid-range level:

That's three meals and one drink each, before water, snacks, or transportation. If you go from the Bellagio to the Aria, a cab runs $15–$20. Yes, you can walk — but leaving the Bellagio, getting down to the Strip, walking to another property, and fighting your way through the crowds is a real workout.

Now, some responses to the video:

"$400–$500 a day for food is not even close." — I just showed you general Strip pricing. If you're willing to drive off the Strip and eat elsewhere, yes, you can eat cheaper. But most Vegas visitors fly in without a car.

On getting comped rooms: One commenter mentioned being comped four free nights at the Bellagio, with a $300 daily food-and-beverage credit per person. Think about that. The hotel is giving a single gambler $300 a day in dining credits. Why would they do that? Because that's what it actually costs to eat at the Bellagio. If there are two people, that's $600 a day — and that's the hotel's own estimate of what their guests spend.

The gambler getting comped is paying in a different way. The house always has the edge. My grandmother, Ruth Godfrey, won the Women's World Series of Poker in 1981 at Binion's — she even has a Wikipedia page. I know a little about gambling. And the math is simple: over time, the house wins. A comped room is a rebate on losses, not a free lunch.

"Vegas is dead to me." — Plenty of people are saying this, and it shows. MGM's own CEO said on an earnings call that they got ahead of themselves on pricing. They've been losing the non-gambling visitor — a segment Vegas spent decades cultivating. Now those travelers are going to Cancun, Portugal, Mexico, Southeast Asia.

One commenter mentioned a 10–12 night trip to Asia with five-star hotels for $2,700 total, including airfare. I can confirm that a five-star hotel in Thailand can run $120 a night with exceptional service and food. Vegas simply can't compete with that on value.

The buffet at the Bellagio is now $55 for brunch, $75 for dinner — plus a $20 line-pass fee and an automatic gratuity. Two people eating buffet dinner: $150 for the meals, plus tip, puts you at $180 — serving yourself. For that same money, you could be on a seven-night Caribbean cruise.

Las Vegas became a luxury destination that priced out the middle-market traveler it spent decades attracting. The market is responding accordingly.

Thanks for listening. If you haven't subscribed, please do — and follow us on the podcast apps, TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook. Catch you next time.