Global Tourism Trends in 2025: Winners and Losers

Introduction

Tourism in 2025 is experiencing a major reshuffling. While some iconic destinations face declining visitor numbers, unexpected countries are breaking records. This shift is driven by politics, climate, currency fluctuations, and changing traveler priorities.

The Winners

1. Japan

• Growth: 21% increase in arrivals (first half of 2025), nearly 30% above pre-pandemic levels
• Key Drivers:
  • Weak yen making travel more affordable for US and European visitors
  • Expanded flight routes and relaxed visa rules
• Challenges: Overcrowding in Kyoto, local protests over noise, traffic, and rising rents

2. Spain

• Performance: Millions of additional travelers; tourists spending more than ever
• Revenue: €76 billion spent by July (7.2% increase from 2024, nearly 50% above 2019)
• Top Markets: UK, Germany, and France
• Hotspots: Canary Islands, Catalonia, Balearic Islands
• Challenges: Growing protests in Barcelona and Mallorca over mass tourism impacts

3. Vietnam

• Growth: 20% surge in arrivals (first half of 2025), 25% above pre-pandemic levels
• Appeal: Affordable combination of pristine coastlines, bustling cities, and cultural landmarks
• Infrastructure: Expanded flight routes from Europe and Asia; rapid development of new resorts and hotels

4. France

• Status: World's most-visited destination for over 30 years
• Milestone: First country to surpass 100 million international arrivals (2023-2024)
• 2025 Performance: 5% increase in arrivals; tourism spending up 50% above 2019 levels
• Attractions: Paris landmarks, Provence, French Riviera, Alps

5. Morocco

• Growth: 20% increase in arrivals (first half of 2025)
• Revenue: Tourism receipts up 60% compared to pre-pandemic 2019
• Strategy: National tourism plan (2023-2026) focusing on air connectivity and diversified attractions
• Popular Destinations: Marrakesh, Sahara Desert, Essaouira, Chefchaouen
• Challenges: Rising over-tourism concerns in Marrakesh

6. Norway

• Performance: 17.4 million overnight stays (first half of 2025); foreign overnights up 32% above 2019
• Surge Markets: US overnights up 71%, Canadian up 81%
• Appeal: Cool climate, pristine wilderness, sustainable tourism alternative
• Popular Sites: Lofoten Islands, Tromsø, Bergen

The Losers

1. United States

• Loss: ~$30 billion in international travel revenue (2025)
• Canadian Decline: 18% drop in arrivals (first half of 2025), nearly 2 million fewer trips
• Overall Impact: 13 million fewer international travelers expected by year-end compared to pre-pandemic
• Causes:
  • Political tensions and tariff disputes
  • Border detention concerns
  • Strong dollar making US expensive
  • Limited signs of quick recovery

2. Thailand

• Decline: 8% drop compared to 2024, still 15% below 2019 levels
• Projections: Only 33 million visitors expected (down from 40 million in 2019)
• Issues:
  • Slow rebound of Chinese visitor market
  • Safety concerns (transport issues, scams)
  • Competition from Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia
• Impact: Softer hotel bookings in Phuket and Pattaya, reduced spending in Bangkok

3. Argentina

• Decline: Double blow of fewer tourists and reduced spending per visitor
• Performance: Down significantly from 2024 and 14% below 2019
• Causes:
  • Ongoing economic crisis
  • Currency instability and inflation
  • Political unrest
  • High airline costs and reduced connectivity
• Impact: Thinner bookings in Buenos Aires and Patagonia

4. Canada

• Mixed Picture: Booming domestic travel but lagging international tourism
• International Decline: Down 5.8% compared to 2024, still 13.3% below 2019 levels
• Key Issue: Decline in US visitors (historically largest source)
• Contributing Factors:
  • Political tensions
  • Anti-US sentiment
  • Reduced cross-border car travel
• Positive Note: Growth in European and Asian arrivals partially offsetting US decline

Conclusion

The global tourism landscape in 2025 reflects dramatic shifts driven by economics, politics, and changing traveler preferences. While some traditional powerhouses maintain dominance, unexpected destinations are emerging as major players, and once-reliable markets are facing unprecedented challenges.